The Runner Tape

MSTR · MicroStrategy

MicroStrategy in 2024: a software company priced on its bitcoin

2024 · +358% in the calendar year

For scale: buying every US stock breakout from 2018 to 2026 with no selection returned a median −22.6% a year later, measured on the 14,674 with a full twelve months of data. How it was measured

Daily bars for MicroStrategy (MSTR), 2023 to 2025, log scale, split-adjusted, with the ignition bar marked.

MicroStrategy sold business-analytics software, but its share price followed the bitcoin it bought with debt and new shares. While the stock traded above the value of those coins, each share sale raised the bitcoin held per share, and the company built its plan on that gap. On 30 October 2024 it announced it would raise $42 billion over three years, half in new shares and half in fixed-income securities. The share price moved +358% in calendar 2024.

When its addition to the Nasdaq-100 was announced in December 2024, Forbes put its market value near $100 billion, more than twice the $46 billion worth of its 439,000 bitcoin. The gap did not last. Renamed Strategy, the company kept selling common and preferred stock to buy coins. By one widely used measure, its market value fell below the value of its bitcoin in November 2025, and the share price fell by about half over 2025.

The full replay of this run, every bar with its catalysts pinned, is part of the members' library. Six classic runs are free now, opened by email.

Free: six classic runs

Sources: Strategy press release, 30 Oct 2024 · Forbes, 16 Dec 2024 · Tekedia, MicroStrategy's mNAV premium · Yahoo Finance, MSTR and the MSCI deadline. Price figures are split-adjusted, not dividend-adjusted.

The Runner Tape and its staff hold no financial or other interest, direct or indirect, in MSTR — no shares, no options or other derivatives, no compensation or arrangement of any kind connected with it — and have received no consideration from any person in connection with it being covered here.

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